Jumps Are Back
Here is Dave with his useful piece of advice.
Jumps Are Back
Good morning all,
After a ten day break the jumps are back, thankfully for me, and in BHA p*ss-up-in-a-brewery fashion, we get two meetings today then nothing until Saturday. We're not paying these people enough.
Anyway, I've been having a good old study up and I'll be doing two Pick 6 syndicates (same horses in both) for both Newton Abbot and Worcester on Colossus, so feel free to join in with a couple of quid and hopefully we can land one of them, at least! They will be under the “Captain Chutney” headers, as always. They'll be up around 10am this morning, so keep an eye out.
My thought process for the Newton Abbot one is on the main piece, plus a selection from Kempton tonight.
Newton Abbot Colossus
1.50 – Maiden Hurdle
David Pipe has the favourite for this in Delirant but he was far too keep on his English debut and despite the hood going on, doesn't look like Pick 6 material to me. American History looks more solid, especially with William Muir's horses running so well (four winners lately) and I've always been a bit of a fan of Marettimo, who tends to run his race more often than not and ought to be on the premises.
There was a temptation to stick Winter Spice in as well, as he was very eyecatching on his Worcester debut (used up a lot of petrol mid-race, looked like dropping right out only to run on again) but there's no money for him and he might be a handicap plot.
2.20 – Juvenile Hurdle
It ought to be straightforward for Cracker Factory but if you're going to get a 1-7 chance out of the frame at this time of the year, it'll be in a Juvenile Hurdle and (very) strictly on a line through Boko Fittleworth you can give Ventura Magic a chance of turning him over. He then came up against the gambled-on Ormesher at Uttoxeter and ran just as well, so we'll stick 'em both in and see if the jolly blows out, because if it does, that'll be 90% of the Pick 6's up in flames.
2.50 – Handicap Hurdle
Cultivator has two ways of running – either really well or blows out totally, so is hardly what we're looking for, and instead we'll stick with the obvious Mister Fizz, in cracking form for his new yard and this trip won't be a bother, and Qualando, who has been on the premises in his last three starts and this slight drop back in trip looks a positive.
3.20 – Novices Chase
Beat That will thrash these hollow if he jumps, and there's the sticking point. So far his record over the bigger obstacles is mixed, to say the least, and the fact they are bringing him out in August for some match practice rather suggests they think he needs it. With four of these looking like they need snookers to get anywhere near, Exxaro looks the obvious alternative – he shouldn't be winning this at the weights but is a safer conveyance than the favourite and really ought to take a clear second at worst.
3.50 – Handicap Hurdle
What to make of Chantecler? He couldn't have won any easier here last time out but that was his first win since 2014 and I wouldn't trust him to do it again. In fact, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he blew out and he looks a favourite to try and get out of the frame.
One of these days Scorpion Star is going to drop in again – he's caught the eye a couple of times travelling very well lately, but finds little off the bridle. But the tongue tie goes on today and that might just help his finishing effort. We'll risk him, and put a couple of other ones in alongside – Lord Fendale, twice runner up recently and will find the trip and ground ideal, and I'll chance Kalaskadesimilley, who ought to be match fit after a couple of runs and ran as if his turn wasn't far away at Stratford last time. He gets blinkers as well and is quite interesting here.
4.20 – Handicap Chase
And a nasty handicap chase to finish, so even if we get to this point, we're not home yet. (If I get a chance to take our money back and let the rest run, I shall do.) Bogoss Du Perret is the one that catches the eye after a solid comeback effort at Worcester where he only weakened late on. He should strip fitter for that and is a course winner.
With Fergal O'Brien struggling I'll leave Bleu Et Or alone, and go with the more obvious Eric The Red, not out of the first two in his last four starts and an easy winner back here in June and for an outsider I'll chuck in Irish Thistle, who simply doesn't win races but is in decent form at present and and could squeak into the frame. The short run-in will suit him as he finds little off the bridle, as he showed last time at Worcester, but he was bang there until late in the day.
On to today's selection and I've done half the Kempton card for the Sporting Life today. The one that interested me wasExeatin the 8.00, a race where I could find little in the way of pace up front and despite a poor draw, I thought Exeat might be able to lead these and get across to a better position. If that's the case, David Probert might be able to dictate the pace and if he can kick at the right time, can have these in trouble.
Today's selection – Exeat 8.00 Kempton
Good luck with all your bets today,
I hope you found that useful :-)
Information courtesy of the Daily Punt.
Keep a look out for our next informative + money-making email soon!
Kind Regards :-)
The UK Horse Racing Experts
Posted on 15th August 2018