Racing Advice.

Wincanton This Weekend Part 1


Posted on 9th November 2017

Dear Friend,

Here's Dave with his first look at this weekend's racing at Wincanton!

Wincanton This Weekend Part 1

Good morning all,

A quick look at the weekend's action at Wincanton today and tomorrow, as the bookmakers have priced up both the Elite Hurdle and Badger Ales and I'll be having a look over the next couple of days to see if there's any value in the ante-post markets.

Plus today's selection from Chepstow, where it promises to ride very slow indeed…

Elite Hurdle

On first glance at this, I don't believe there too many can actually win this, and the bookmakers look to have it about right.

Heading the market is Nicky Henderson's Call Me Lord, and I was pretty sniffy about his chances at Sandown on the final day of the season – we've seen plenty of these French imports blow out first time, but it must be said that he was quite impressive in dishing out a beating to the useful Dolos and all, and that despite clattering a number of obstacles on the way round. The handicapper stuck him up 8lb for that, but he's easily got that in hand if he tidies his jumping up. Neither will he mind any further rain and with further improvement likely, he's a worthy favourite. But if you like his chances, you may as well hang on until the day – chances are he'll be a similar price and there's every possibility he'll get the Betfred Push on Saturday morning too.

Seven Barrows then muddy the waters further by having the second in, Lough Derg Spirit, for who this looks an ideal test. Two miles around a right handed track seems his bag, and he's likely to try and make all. But there's competition for the lead here, especially if Charbel lines up, which won't help his chance so again, it has to be a watching brief at this stage.

This test ought to suit Zubayr too, but I have a concern with him in that he simply doesn't win enough races to be trusted at around the 5-1 mark. The ability is there, but he finds sticking his head in front hard. In his defence, he does take in a lot of big-field handicaps, which are never the easiest to win, but even so, unless this field cuts up to single figures (and it may) I think I may look elsewhere for the winner.

Flying Tiger was an improver throughout last season and even though he sprang a 33-1 surprise when winning the Fred Winter at the Festival, it was no fluke. If the pacemakers here all line up, that will suit him down to the ground (can be a bit free) and he warmed up for this with a very promising effort on the Flat at Ascot last month. With no ground worries either, and the yard among the winners, at this stage he's top of my list. But again, he's the right price rather than overpriced so I may as well wait until the day to see what lines up.

London Prize is a thoroughly admirable sort that finished second in the Cesarewitch on his latest start. At the back of my head, I have it that he may need slightly more of a test than this but even so, he has to be respected. As does Charbel, one of the most improved novice chasers of last season and he was far from done with when coming down two from home in the Arkle. He's on a fair mark on his chase form and can't be ruled out, although this will surely be a precursor to a season back over fences, and I have made the point that he may get taken on for the lead too, depending on who runs.

Old Guard has no secrets from anyone now but he seemed to enjoy the drop back to 2m at Kempton last time, and with the second running well since, that form actually looks half decent. He was, however, entitled to win that race at the weights and a few in the field didn't run their races, so maybe it's not quite as good as it looks at first glance, and there must be better options.

Coeur De Lion was a strong fancy for the Cesarewitch for me but sadly didn't make the cut. He will surely find this too sharp a test, unless there's an absolute deluge before Saturday. And beyond that in the market, there's very little that makes much appeal. So as far as an ante-post bet goes here, the advice is to hold fire until the day as the whole shape of the race could easily change after declarations Friday.

I hope you found that useful :-)

Information courtesy of the Daily Punt.

Keep a look out for our next informative + money-making email soon!

Kind Regards :-)


The UK Horse Racing Experts