Racing Advice. Ebor Festival Day 2
Here's Dave again with his insights into Day 2.
Ebor Festival Day 2
Good morning all.
Away to York shortly for the first of three days working in the ring. Gonna be busy!
Just about enough on yesterday's preview to keep heads above water thanks to a drift on Here And Now, although I suggest we keep Evie Speed on side for the time being as her jockey reported she stumbled as she came out the stalls and used all the petrol up too early getting her position back. She's better than that.
On to today, and another tricky card. When are they not at York?
1.55 York – Lowther Stakes
Fairyland didn’t quite have the pace at Ascot but this track will suit better and winner Main Edition has shown that form is solid. Had one of her main dangers here in Angel’s Hideaway behind her and I see no reason why that should be reversed.
Little Kim has been crying out for a sixth furlong. She never really got competitive at Newbury in the Super Sprint but previous G3 win at Deauville solid. Any rain a plus but even if it doesn’t come, still has a decent e/w chance. I think she's the bet.
2.25 York – Yearling Stakes (6f)
Oberon Martell’s last run needs forgiving but it’s worth remembering he was odds-on to beat Kodyanna and company there, and was giving a chunk of weight away. That was run in a slow time too, and I’m happy to overlook it. Had looked progressive previously and now looks too big a price based on one poor run. (Update – having watched yesterday’s racing, there appears a pace bias towards those drawn high, which worries me a bit.)
Big Baby Bull has plenty to find on the figures but was impressive (in the end) at Brighton despite hating every second of it on a track he clearly didn’t handle. This will be more to his liking and he holds an entry for Redcar’s big 2yo sales race too. Loads more to come and might have an advantage with the draw. (update – yes, he has. Leaning more towards him than Oberon now.)
3.00 York – 1m Handicap
Two against the field in this big-field handicap, although I expect both of them to be near the head of the market.
Afaak has just about everything going for him here. I really fancied him in the Hunt Cup but sadly was undone by the handicap blot on the card. He also ran much better than I thought he would at Goodwood last time, and back at York, where I thought he won with a bit in hand earlier in the year, looks the one to beat.
Kynren’s excellent third in the John Smith’s was rewarded with just a 1lb rise and that looks lenient. He drops back in trip here but his record at a mile is excellent, and he’s drawn very well too.
4.50 York – 7f Fillies Handicap
I’ve got a lot of time for Betty F and backed her despite the jump in grade she took at Goodwood last time. With a clear passage she might have hit the frame there. She’s gone up 5lb for that but I still don’t think Noseda has got to the bottom of her, and if she’s the right sort of price, I’ll get involved again. (at 9-1, I’ll try a small e/w bet).
Florenza looks the back-up, although I have a slight concern she may get taken on by Lincoln Rocks up front early on. As long as she doesn’t get involved in a speed duel with her, then she’s got a bit in her favour – two very solid historic runs here, back to form at Donny last time and how she’s got away with just a 5lb rise for that very easy win is a mystery.
Today's selection – Afaak 3.00 York
Good luck with all your bets today,
I hope you found that useful :-)
Information courtesy of the Daily Punt.
Posted on 23rd August 2018